Happy New Year from Cheap Talk: The top global risks in 2024; the shadow of the US presidential election; the Russia/Ukraine conflict and the dangers of risk-taking; a broader war in the Middle East; accidental conflict and North Korea; China’s economy; AI and misinformation; extreme weather and El Niño; the erosion of limits on nuclear weapons; the decline of global cooperation; and Marcus declines to make a New Year’s resolution

The final Cheap Talk podcast of 2023: Thanks for visiting our store at cheaptalk.shop; Beast Train follow-up; EU regulation and the project of AI governance; the tension between domestic and international action; the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty is a poor analogy for an international agreement on AI; an agreement at the Climate Summit; non-binding agreements and screening for national preferences; the role of nuclear energy in combatting climate change; and Marcus will see you next year

Get all your holiday gifts at the new Cheap Talk shop!

We’ll be back in January, 2024. Subscribe in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified about new episodes.

The grand opening of the Cheap Talk shop at https://cheaptalk.shop; cheating at really fast chess; yet another panda update—this time from Scotland; video games as the solution to polarization and international peace; video games to strike fear into your hearts; Biden skips the climate summit; and Marcus is nothing if not consistent

Holiday shopping? Check out the brand new Cheap Talk shop!

Panda diplomacy revisited; the State Department’s dissent channel; whether dissent cables matter; Xi and Biden meet without a a joint statement; resuming military-to-military communication; managing competition between China and the United States; the missing agreement on AI; and Marcus contemplates his Thanksgiving menu

Panda diplomacy; conservation versus paranoia; the correlates of the panda presence abroad; China’s intentions with regard to large bears; the effectiveness of the panda signal; the causal mechanisms behind panda diplomacy; soft (and cuddly) power; distinguishing public diplomacy from propaganda; cute animals as grand strategy; and Marcus is not a zoologist

Who is Hamas; US ideas about who governs Gaza; Israel signaling to adversaries; the US signaling to allies; Saudi Arabia may still be seeking normalization with Israel; China’s presence at an AI meeting; and Marcus wants to turn the tables

Vicarious trauma from the Israel-Hamas conflict; traffic maps and other consumer data with international security implications; reasons to delay an invasion of Gaza; the risk of a wider war in the Middle East; linking military action and political goals; the challenges of fighting in an urban environment; and Marcus would like you to follow him on Strava

What’s going on in Israel and Gaza; President Biden’s visit to Israel; analogies to 9/11 and other past events; the benefits of a biased mediator; securing humanitarian aid for Gaza; the competing Putin/Xi summit; the value of export controls on technology; and Marcus shuts the barn door after the cows or the horses have gotten out

The war in Israel; it is ok to turn off the newsfeed; intelligence and security failures; why Hamas conducted this attack at this time; normalization with Israel; the role of Iran; US deterrence and military aid; Israel’s impending ground war; the tragedy of civilians caught in conflict; broader implications for international security; deterring terrorism; and Marcus is not doing well

Birthday wishes; US political dysfunction and international politics; the second image reversed; the Trump candidacy and foreign policy; space diplomacy; anti-satellite weapons; cross-domain deterrence; the McDonalds peace theory; and Marcus has read a Tom Friedman book

The dysfunction of the UN Security Council; how various IR traditions look at international institutions; why measuring the UN’s effectiveness is difficult; structural problems with the UN; where UN decisions are actually made; the UN is more than the Security Council; the value of diplomacy; potential UN reform; international security forum shopping; and Marcus struggles to summarize a Sherlock Holmes story

Analyzing a possible US defense alliance with Saudi Arabia; sports diplomacy and sportswashing; Zelensky’s speech at the UN General Assembly; and Marcus is confused

Kim Jong-un takes the slow train to Russia; a refresher on the value of high-level summitry; Russia’s need for military supplies and what this says about the effectiveness of sanctions; the signal sent by Ukraine’s counteroffensive; setting expectations for military operations; and Marcus is impressed by the train

Cheap Talk’s Season 4 Premiere: The trilateral alliance visits Camp David; US reassurance and nuclear proliferation in Asia; AI and international crises; computers can be biased, three not-very-persuasive arguments against US support for Ukraine; and Marcus racks up the frequent flier miles

A special summer episode of Cheap Talk: Hypersonic missiles and missile defense in Ukraine; signaling and the defense of Bakhmut; Ukraine’s path to NATO membership; alien spacecraft on earth; Apple’s Vision Pro announcement; diplomacy in virtual reality; military applications of augmented reality; and Marcus sympathizes with alien whistleblowers

Social identity theory and international relations; the behavior of rogue states; US nuclear assurance to South Korea; the risk from deepfakes and how to address them; the current state of sports diplomacy; and Marcus is a complicated individual

The Discord intelligence leak; what we learned from the information; Egypt’s plan to sell weapons to Russia; China’s plan to sell weapons to Russia; US restraint and China’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict; how the leaker’s motives compare to other famous leaks; how the internet makes intelligence releases more damaging; assessing the intelligence impact of the leaks; the trade-off between intelligence sharing and the risk of leaks; and Marcus is a big lover of humans

Looking back on the Iraq war after 20 years (and 1 month); lingering uncertainty about the reasons for the US invasion; the role (or lack thereof) of groupthink in that decision; the intelligence community’s judgment that Iraq had WMD and was reconstituting its nuclear weapons program; why the intelligence community got it wrong; lessons learned for intelligence analysis; the long-term repercussions of the Iraq war; and Marcus puts his cards on the table

Nikki Haley’s experience at the United Nations; what it means to be a US ambassador; Russia’s statement about nuclear weapons in Belarus; the ICC’s arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin; credibility in international institutions; the power of international law on the margins; and Marcus considers future podcast guests