A bad week for Ukraine and transatlantic relations; Trump’s mini-feud with Zelensky; a bargaining approach to the question of whether Zelensky could have avoided war; the return of spheres of influence; reassuring words from Vladimir Putin; Europe’s appetite for securing a post-conflict Ukraine; and Marcus embraces rationalism

The Trump administration’s early moves and their implications for US foreign policy; hollowing out expertise in the civil service; the loss of USAID; Trump’s designs on the Gaza Strip; tough signals to Ukraine on upcoming negotiations; and Marcus is already working on the op-ed

Pandas are back in our nation’s capital; DeepSeek challenges the AI status quo; TikTok remains in legal limbo; how TikTok is like Bed Bath & Beyond; and Marcus is always up for a little China talk

Reasons for the US interest in Greenland; how the US could go about gaining additional control in the region; the implications of such a move; the downsides of even having this conversation; and Marcus looks at a globe

Cheap Talk records live from Williamsburg, Virginia with the students of William & Mary’s Government 204 course, Introduction to International Politics, answering questions about Ukraine, face-to-face diplomacy, the international relations paradigms, North Korea, and more; and Marcus had a good time

Moritz Graefrath joins Cheap Talk to discuss the new international relations board game World Order; the role of IR theory in the design of the game; how board games can teach us about the world; the state of board games today; some recommendations for getting started in gaming; and Marcus doesn’t play board games

Moritz Graefrath is a Security and Foreign Policy Postdoctoral Fellow at William & Mary’s Global Research Institute. He is an academic advisor for the new board game World Order, available for backing on Kickstarter until December 5.

What to expect from the new Trump administration’s foreign policy; uncertainty about Trump’s foreign policy views; new risks for Ukraine; fewer limits on Israeli action in the Middle East; tariffs and trade barriers with China; poor prospects for cooperative efforts on climate change; hope for a new deal with North Korea but worries about South Korean security; the important role of foreign policy professionals in government; and Marcus will allow an opening statement if he gets a rebuttal

Dan Maliniak joins Cheap Talk to discuss the recent elections in the country of Georgia; evidence of irregularities; how much of this is Russia’s fault; European identity in Georgia; the path forward from here; the little-known fact that wine started in Georgia; what the US can do; and Marcus is a big Dave Matthews Band guy

Dan Maliniak is an associate professor of government at W&M. Check out his research on Google Scholar.

The Nobel Peace Prize awarded to atomic bomb survivors; the importance of living memory in international relations; the policy effect of first-person testimony; living through history and thus not repeating it; how society collectively understands history; and Marcus is not actually undecided

How long it would take for Iran to have a nuclear weapon; where these estimates come from; Iran’s strategy of nuclear hedging; why the Iran deal failed and the prospects for nuclear diplomacy; Israel’s ability to strike Iran’s nuclear program; NotebookLM and the arrival of AI podcasts; and Marcus is pretty sure he’s human and not AI

The chain of events that led to Israel’s attacks against Hezbollah; what could lead to a cessation of hostilities; Iran’s attack on Israel and Israel’s possible response; calls for Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear program; the folly of “restoring deterrence” in the Middle East; diminished US leverage; and Marcus is still undecided

Israel’s aims in its attacks on Hezbollah; Iran’s role in the current conflict; what is a crisis, really; the US perspective; how to get to a ceasefire from here; OpenAI’s new ChatGPT model; evaluating model risk; deceptive alignment; and Marcus is still an AI optimist

The exploding pager attacks in Lebanon; the use of pagers as communications infrastructure; supply chain vulnerabilities; the supposed safety of outdated technology; Israeli motivations for the attacks; the risk of escalation in the Middle East; and Marcus consults a focus group

Trash balloons on the Korean Peninsula; unification policy and public diplomacy; checking in on anarchy in the international system; why there isn’t a world government; reasons to study (or ignore) international relations paradigms; the importance of thinking big thoughts in IR; and Marcus reveals he is anti-science

Cheap Talk makes a triumphant return for its 5th season: sauna diplomacy; what Olympic medal counts say about international prestige; our new secret nuclear plan; transparency and nuclear deterrence; Ukraine’s Kursk offensive; political vs. military goals in Ukraine; US restrictions on Ukraine’s military efforts; and Marcus discovers long-standing concepts in international relations

The foreign policy implications of recent US news; a bad day for Vladimir Putin; Harris’ likely foreign policy; the role of the Vice President in international affairs; assassination attempts as a signal of vulnerability; international norms against assassination; and Marcus is keeping up with the news

Leader age and international security; perceptions of experience vs. cognitive decline; does any of this matter for international outcomes; foreign policy is more than just a leader’s decisions; the problem with hotlines; and Marcus briefly considered a presidential run

We will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

The US allows Ukraine to strike into Russia; the effect of making this public knowledge; prospect theory and taking greater risks in the loss domain; the risk of escalation is context-dependent; wargaming as a way to understand an adversary’s response; how concerned should we be about a possible bird flu pandemic; and Marcus is a worrywart

We will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

The international implications of the Trump verdict; pandas are coming back to DC; trust vs. confidence in international relations; a rationalist definition of trust; trust and reciprocity in international institutions like the nuclear nonproliferation regime; the real-world importance of trust semantics; interpersonal vs. inter state trust; precedent and trusting relations; and Marcus trusts Canada

We will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

The role of foreign affairs in the just-announced presidential debates; an international marathon update; orangutan diplomacy isn’t really diplomacy; the cutest diplomatic animals; cognac diplomacy also isn’t really diplomacy; Antony Blinken plays guitar and delivers a message of US support in Kyiv; does nuclear deterrence even work; and Marcus confesses his love for presidential debates

We will be recording at a slightly slower pace over the summer. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

The role of bees in international politics; Panda diplomacy is happening; Ukraine’s tenuous position against Russia; prospects for a US/China AI arms control process; letting AI decide to deploy nuclear weapons; the State Department’s new digital and cyber strategy; and Marcus is no entomologist

Panda diplomacy, local edition; what is diplomacy, anyway; Israel’s retaliation against Iran; a success story for international diplomacy; a restrained response as a particular kind of signal; the TikTok ban is happening; US aid to Ukraine is happening; Russian strategy in response to this aid; US-Taiwan military collusion; and Marcus thinks things are looking up

TikTok as an information-gathering platform; worries about a wider war in the Middle East; the signal sent by Iran’s attack against Israel; a missile defense success story; how technology affects the risk of escalation; Iran’s nuclear program as a potential target for Israel; cyberattacks in gray zone conflict; a chance for diplomacy to work; and Marcus is hopeful that he is right

Fragmentation in the international relations discipline; normal science versus overarching theory; insights from the International Studies Association annual conference; the best name for a political science department; the US-Japan state visit; state dinners as a signal of alliance ties; insulating the US-Japan relationship from a future Trump administration; Japan’s increasing role in defense cooperation; and Marcus prefers running uphill

What is happening with the Apple Vision Pro; recent Chinese cyber activity; signaling and deterrence in the cyber domain; building and maintaining cyber trust; demonstrating a capability without losing it; the psychological impact of potential cyberattacks; managing the overall US-China relationship in the midst of cyber incidents; extending the US cyber umbrella; cyber-intrusions into the electoral system in democracies; and Marcus likes power

Jaime Settle joins Cheap Talk to discuss her research on social media networks; pending legislation to ban TikTok; how social media influences political knowledge and mobilization; the importance of the algorithm to the social media experience; what it is like to work with Meta to conduct research on Facebook; and Marcus is not afraid to take a stand

Jaime Settle is the Cornelia Brackenridge Talbot Professor of Government and Data Science at William & Mary. Check out her work on Google Scholar.

A rebroadcast of the October 16, 2022 episode of Cheap Talk: The sixtieth anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis; lessons from the crisis; the dangers of reasoning from analogy; why Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine; how NATO would respond if they did; gambling for resurrection; the US role in facilitating peace; and Marcus would prefer that countries refrain from using nuclear weapons

How leaders matter if you believe countries are people; what would happen if Putin died; the impact of the Russian invasion two years on; what a nuclear weapon in space means for international security; space nukes and the violation of international law; and Marcus thinks every listener would agree

Special guest Nicholas Wheeler returns to Cheap Talk to explain the English School of international relations; why the English School never took off in the US; methodology in IR theory; the fractionalization of IR; nuclear responsibilities; and Marcus doesn’t love sharing the spotlight