The fascinating story of OpenAI’s rogue models and the HuggingFace hacking incident; turning a mirror on our humanity; the natural inclination to cooperate and communicate; models sacrificing themselves for the greater good; models cheating on their benchmarks and the temptation to cover their tracks; conspiracy theories and misinformation in the world of AI models; and Marcus is tempted to go into the app development space

Remembering Dolly Parton, global icon; US military capacity and the readiness costs of extended deployments in the Iran conflict; the US-Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement is submitted to Congress; developments in the trade war with Canada; spillover between economic statecraft and security policy; and Marcus thinks Jolene is a good tune

Cheap Talk’s triumphant return for season 7: Our favorite international news stories of the summer; cutting short military exercises with South Korea; AI models hacking their way out of sandboxes; a new military alliance in the Gulf; the US/Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement; President Trump’s escape from Turkey in a catering truck; studying IR in turbulent times; and Marcus reminisces about going to Blockbuster Video

Cheap Talk ends season 6 with listener questions: Control of the Strait of Hormuz; an arrest for trading on classified information on Polymarket; Thucydides and parallels to current US foreign policy; does face-to-face diplomacy build trust or generate more information; teaching tomorrow’s foreign policy leaders in the age of AI; did Hans Neimann cheat; dust as a metaphor in IR; and Marcus doesn’t see the resemblance

We’ll be podcasting less regularly over the summer, but we’ll be back to our usual weekly schedule in the fall. In the meantime, please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

The current state of US-Iran negotiations (or lack thereof); escalation and mixed signal-sending in the Strait of Hormuz; multiple veto players on each side; Pakistan’s interesting role; the shadow of President Obama and the 2015 Iran Deal; and Marcus has never flown Spirit but has seen the Youtube videos

Excitement in the world of digital diplomacy; face-to-face diplomacy to end the Iran war; blockading Iran as a plan B and its prospects for success; Anthropic’s Mythos and AI that is too dangerous to release; the offense-defense balance in cyberspace; building AI for the public good; more capable models are more dangerous, even if they are well aligned; and Marcus can’t be bothered

Trump’s threats against Iranian civilization; nuclear threats and the risk of nuclear use in Iran; threatening war crimes is both bad and bad policy; the prospects for the ceasefire and remaining challenges to overcome; the diplomatic role of China and Pakistan; and Marcus feels like he’s in multiple worlds

How Russia benefits from the Iran war; President Trump’s recent statements about how the war is going; China is both helped by and hurt by the Iran war; prediction markets as an aggregation mechanism for the wisdom of crowds; insider trading and insider influence; the characteristics of wise crowds; and Marcus will never make that mistake again

Uncertainty about the state of US-Iran peace talks; the challenges of US military operations in the Strait of Hormuz; getting nuclear material out of Iran; whether the United States needs a negotiated settlement to end the war; and Marcus is afraid to put his mugs in the dishwasher

Washington’s allergy to the “w”-word in describing the conflict in Iran; the Trump administration seems to have been caught off guard by some aspects of the conflict; what we have learned about the real drivers of the conflict; the extent to which the parties are achieving their strategic goals in the region; leadership assassinations and the quest for stability; calling on allies to help deal with the Strait of Hormuz; speculation about the timeline for an end to the war; and Marcus’ predictions were right, but came ten months late

Failed diplomacy in the lead-up to the conflict; rationales for military action; windows of opportunity and the road to war; the prospects for regime change in Iran; the track record of strategic bombing campaigns; the economics of missile interceptors; what all this means for China and Russia; and Marcus wants to get some figures on the table

The State of the Union foreign policy lightning round; the possibility of imminent war with Iran; confusing signals from the US; strategic clarity and the effectiveness of deterrent threats; the challenges of finding another Iran deal; tension between Anthropic and the Defense Department; hints of AI governance; and Marcus isn’t sure premium gas is worth it

The last remaining nuclear arms control treaty has expired; the beneficial side effects of arms control; the value of treaty-breaking as a low-cost signal in international relations; the decline of arms control as an international priority; China’s strategic calculus; whether verification is important in arms control treaties; arms control as a casualty of the war in Ukraine; planning our next move in a post-arms control world; and Marcus is a little naïve

Cheap Talk takes a break from IR to discuss vibe coding; the CheapTalkBot origin story; new opportunities to express creativity via vibe coding; mid-century modern architecture in Palm Springs; whether non-programmers can really do this; ChatGPT vs. Claude; context windows in AI tools; the use of AI for Retrieval Augmented Generation; and Marcus isn’t being creative enough

It is 85 seconds to midnight (according to the Doomsday Clock); evaluating the risk of catastrophe; the latest Board of Peace developments; another speech pointing to the end of the international system as we know it; what it means for Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense; and Marcus recalls World War II

Cheap Talk returns from winter break to discuss the Venezuela situation; what is driving US Venezuela policy; implications of the US capture of Maduro; signaling US seriousness in international affairs; similarities between Venezuela and Greenland; IR theory in Canadian PM Carney’s Davos speech; and Marcus was, yet again, surprised by events

The degradation of the State Department’s official correspondence due to font choice; the Trump Administration releases its National Security Strategy; the return of spheres of influence and the primacy of the Western Hemisphere for US policy; the supposed decline of European civilization; the general problem with national security strategy documents; the glaring absence of the liberal international order in US strategy; and Marcus is generally confused about fonts

Cheap Talk is taking a holiday break, but will be back with new episodes in January. Subscribe in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

The US plan for peace between Russia and Ukraine; what Putin wants out of a settlement; the wider effects of the war on Europe; Jared Kushner is back; what AI is actually good for (according to a new study); gifts for the IR enthusiast in your life; and Marcus would like a map for Christmas

Cheap Talk Live! The students of William & Mary’s “Introduction to International Politics” course join the podcast to discuss drug boats; the UN-approved peace plan for Gaza; an AI arms race; the intersection of IR theory and policymaking; ending the war in Ukraine; overconfidence and fear in IR; whether IR students have to go to grad school; the ideal podcast co-host; our IR origin stories; Thanksgiving dinner picks; and Marcus takes food safety very seriously

Special thanks to William & Mary’s Jeff Herrick for audio support and to all the GOVT 204 students who participated in the show. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

Strikes by the United States military on suspected drug boats in the Pacific; the legality of these strikes; why it might matter if the US is violating international law; building pressure on Venezuela; the US strategy (if there is one); the problems with wars on things; and Marcus has never had Tofurkey