Cheap Talk

Cheap Talk is an every-week-or-so international relations podcast with Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes, professors of government at William & Mary.

This Weird Corner of History

The Cheap Talk season 2 finale: Authenticating the sender of international signals; the problem of communicating through intermediaries; technology and leader communication; IR predictions for the year ahead; and Marcus explains how fax machines work

Those Are Not Their Actual Faces

Artificial intelligence; how algorithms can aid policy or intelligence analysis; building trust in the output of machine learning models; creating models without access to secret data; autonomous weapon systems; diplomacy in the metaverse; and Marcus offers tips for cooking a Thanksgiving turkey

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Further reading:

“Virtual Reality Emerges in International Exchanges in Egypt – A Glimpse into the Future.” 2021. US Department of State Dipnote.

J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 2020. “How to Cook a Spatchcocked Turkey: The Fastest, Easiest Thanksgiving Turkey.” Serious Eats.

J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 2018. “Herb-Roasted Turkey With Stuffing.” Serious Eats. (On how to safely cook stuffing in the turkey.)

J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 2021. “The Importance of Resting Meat.” Serious Eats. (“For a 12 to 15 pound turkey roasted at high temperatures, a rest of at least 20 to 30 minutes before carving is recommended.”)

Exploiters of the Earth

The COP26 international meeting on climate change; inviting civil society and oil companies into the room; how open should the conference be; the mechanisms by which an international conference can affect climate change; prospects for the success of international efforts; the role of nuclear energy in mitigating climate change; a listener asks about the chances of a US-Iran agreement on a nuclear deal; and Marcus comes reasonably close to pronouncing Greta Thunberg’s name correctly

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Pronunciation guide:

On the Cuyahoga river, see “Letters: Cuyahoga River.” 2009. All Things Considered. National Public Radio.

On Greta Thunberg, see “Greta Thunberg Wins Alternative Nobel.” 2019. Bloomberg QuickTake.

There’s Quite a Bit of Hand-Waving Going On

Great power conflict; the US role in abetting China’s rise; realism as both prescription and description; prospects for the future US-China relationship; the drivers of China’s nuclear expansion; a listener asks about US diplomatic engagement in the China-Taiwan dispute; and Marcus (again) thinks the answer is more diplomacy

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Further reading:

John J. Mearsheimer. 2021. “The Inevitable Rivalry: America, China, and the Tragedy of Great-Power Politics.” Foreign Affairs.

Matthew Kroenig. 2018. The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy: Why Strategic Superiority Matters. Oxford University Press.

The Elites With Too Much Time On Their Hands

The US commitment to defend Taiwan; signaling resolve while maintaining strategic ambiguity; things are dangerous out there; the effect of US public opinion on US foreign policy; a hint for those writing policy memos for class; the external validity of survey experiments in political science; COVID vaccine diplomacy and international influence; and Marcus claims he’s more of a craps player than a blackjack player

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That Seems Like Kind of a Stupid Thing To Complain About

The gap between academia and policy; where policy beliefs come from; how we would know if there were a gap; policymakers are busy people; less methodological sophistication is not the answer; science communication can bridge the gap; and Marcus mentions offhandedly that he frequently gets invited to the State Department

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The Experiment That We're Running in This Crazy World of Ours

Pure theorizing versus applied research; positivist and non-positivist approaches in international relations; international relations is what the field says it is; the relevance of the international relations paradigms; a defense of methodological pluralism; and Marcus reads a quote from Kenneth Waltz several times

Further reading:

David A. Lake. 2011. “Why ‘isms’ Are Evil: Theory, Epistemology, and Academic Sects as Impediments to Understanding and Progress.” International Studies Quarterly 55(2): 465–480.

John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt. 2013. “Leaving Theory Behind: Why Simplistic Hypothesis Testing is Bad for International Relations.” European Journal of International Relations 19(3): 427–457.

The Real Victims Are the Gala-Goers

Judging the US-Russia summit; the risks of failed summit diplomacy; AUKUS; countering China versus nonproliferation policy; nuclear submarines; the role of precedent and norms in international relations; and Marcus makes a note in his Google calendar

Further reading:

Jeffrey M. Kaplow. 2015. “The Canary in the Nuclear Submarine: Assessing the Nonproliferation Risk of the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Loophole.” Nonproliferation Review 22(2): 185–202.

Maybe Quibbles To Be Had There

Cheap Talk makes its triumphant return for season 2: The US withdrawal from Afghanistan; reputations for resolve in international relations; foreign policy as a partisan issue; the legacy of 9/11; and Marcus didn’t know what to do, so he went to class

Plucked From Obscurity

The Cheap Talk season finale: Redeeming the polls and Nate Silver; embracing international institutions and alliances; a chance to get back into a deal with Iran; North Korea is still a mess; and Marcus thinks face-to-face diplomacy is the answer

Facebook Is a Criminal Enterprise

Believing the polls in advance of the US presidential election; the national vote versus the electoral college; what to think about early vote tallies; addressing and deterring disinformation campaigns; and Marcus makes a prediction even though he doesn’t have a great theory

That's Just Good Business

Whether more nuclear weapons are better; the risk of accidental nuclear use; the role of US nuclear weapons in spurring more proliferation; the reality of a world of nuclear haves and have-nots; and Marcus discovers hypocrisy exists in international politics

There Were Bales of Hay and It Was a Nice Day Out